New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Bo BichetteBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harris II reached on infield single to first, Olson scored.10–9
- 9Baldwin homered to left (383 feet), Smith scored, Riley scored and White scored.10–8
- 9Dubón scored, Smith to second on pickoff error by pitcher Brazobán.10–4
- 9Dubón scored, Smith to second on pickoff error by pitcher Brazobán.10–4
- 9Young singled to left, Soto scored and Bichette scored.10–3
- 9Bichette doubled to left, Baty scored and Lindor scored, Soto to third.8–3
- 9Taylor homered to left center (417 feet).6–3
- 2Soto singled to right, Baty scored and Lindor scored.5–3
- 2Lindor singled to left, Torrens scored, Lindor to second, Baty to third.3–3
- 2Ewing homered to center (408 feet).2–3
- 1Dubón singled to center, Harris II scored.1–3
- 1Harris II singled to center, Baldwin scored and Albies scored.1–2
- 1Bichette singled to left, Lindor scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML NYM +102 / ATL -122
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.9%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -111
- NYM +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.1 – 4.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +3 | NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +62 Elo | ATL 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 26th of 3017–29 | Road vs home | 27–164th of 30 |
| 25th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301478 | Elo rating | 15296th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–50 | 51–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–32 | 33–28 |
| Underdog | 18–18 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 40–40–9 | 40–41–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 16–28 ATL in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 44.