Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Davis walked, O'Hearn scored, Callihan to second, Mangum to third.7–1
- 8Gonzales singled to left, Reynolds scored, O'Hearn to second.6–1
- 2Valdez singled to right, Davis scored, Lowe to third.5–1
- 2Lowe singled to center, Callihan scored and Mangum scored, Davis to second.4–1
- 2Davis reached on infield single to third, Gonzales scored, Callihan to second, Mangum to third.2–1
- 1Wood homered to right (428 feet).1–1
- 1Griffin stole home, Reynolds stole second.1–0
- 1Griffin stole home, Reynolds stole second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 59%
- ML PIT -162 / WSH +134
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.2%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -145
- WSH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 5.7 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −7 | PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Carson Palmquist: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +8 Elo | PIT 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.28th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 3021–23 | Road vs home | 18–2529th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301493 | Elo rating | 148321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–47 | 55–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–28 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 24–19 | 46–25 |
| Overs–unders | 51–35–3 | 53–31–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 15–11 WSH in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 26.