New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Harris II doubled to right, Azócar scored.7–6
- 10Torrens doubled to left, Bichette scored and Young scored.7–5
- 9Olson homered to left (379 feet), Albies scored.5–5
- 9Soto homered to right (430 feet), Taylor scored and Mauricio scored.5–3
- 6Alvarez singled to right, Benge scored, Young to third.2–3
- 3Olson homered to right (403 feet).1–3
- 2Harris II singled to left, Yastrzemski scored, Jarvis to second.1–2
- 2Jarvis singled to left, Smith scored, Yastrzemski to third.1–1
- 2Benge homered to left center (398 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML NYM +104 / ATL -126
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 61.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +7 | NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +82 Elo | ATL 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 26th of 3018–29 | Road vs home | 27–176th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301479 | Elo rating | 15285th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–50 | 51–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–32 | 33–29 |
| Underdog | 19–18 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 41–40–9 | 41–41–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 17–28 ATL in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 45.