Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching2.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Davis singled to left, O'Hearn scored and Gonzales scored.11–5
- 8Crews homered to left center (400 feet).9–5
- 8Lowe homered to right (396 feet), Mangum scored and Griffin scored.9–4
- 8Griffin singled to right, Davis scored and Triolo scored, Mangum to third.6–4
- 5Abrams hit sacrifice fly to shortstop, Wood scored.4–4
- 4Vivas grounded out to first, Crews scored.4–3
- 3García Jr. homered to right (370 feet), Ruiz scored.4–2
- 3Reynolds homered to center (399 feet).4–0
- 2Mangum singled to left, Callihan scored.3–0
- 2Callihan singled to right, O'Hearn scored and Gonzales scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 55%
- ML PIT +115 / WSH -138
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 50.2%, market 55.5%
- Fair odds
- WSH -125
- PIT +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.8 – 5.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −2 | PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +1 Elo | WSH 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 55.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 3022–23 | Road vs home | 18–2629th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15081st of 30 |
| 17th of 301496 | Elo rating | 148022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–47 | 55–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–28 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 24–19 | 46–26 |
| Overs–unders | 51–36–3 | 53–32–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 16–11 WSH in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 27.