Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon SproatPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Esmerlyn ValdezBatting3-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Valdez homered to right (380 feet), Davis scored, Mangum scored and Lowe scored.6–7
- 7Contreras singled to left, Mitchell scored.6–3
- 5Frelick homered to right (380 feet), Pratt scored.5–3
- 5Pratt doubled to center, Lara scored.3–3
- 3Valdez homered to center (421 feet).2–3
- 2Bauers homered to right (375 feet), Contreras scored.2–2
- 1Reynolds scored on error, Gonzales safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Ortiz, Valdez safe at third on error.0–2
- 1Valdez singled to left, Mangum scored, Reynolds to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML MIL -103 / PIT -117
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 44.3%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- PIT -106
- MIL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +15 | MIL: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +40 Elo | MIL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–16 | Road vs home | 24–2417th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301571 | Elo rating | 149717th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–42 | 45–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–35 | 20–30 |
| Underdog | 20–7 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders | 41–49–3 | 54–37–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 26–16 PIT in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 42.