Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Joey BartBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting1-4
- Jared JonesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baldwin singled to center, Harris II scored, Baldwin to second.3–0
- 8Bart homered to left center (422 feet), Yastrzemski scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML ATL +102 / PIT -123
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 48.8%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- PIT -111
- ATL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 4.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −5 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +8 Elo | ATL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.46th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 7th of 3025–20 | Road vs home | 24–2213th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 6th of 301523 | Elo rating | 150216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–39 | 45–47 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–30 | 20–28 |
| Underdog | 18–9 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders | 43–41–6 | 53–36–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 12–11 PIT in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.