Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Jake MangumBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Yastrzemski homered to right (403 feet), Olson scored, Baldwin scored and Smith scored.10–5
- 6Mangum doubled to right, Gonzales scored, Triolo to third.6–5
- 4Mangum homered to right (405 feet), Triolo scored.6–4
- 4Baldwin singled to right, Albies scored, Olson to third.6–2
- 4Jarvis homered to right (397 feet), Yastrzemski scored.5–2
- 3Valdez homered to left (394 feet).3–2
- 3Reynolds homered to right (390 feet).3–1
- 3Dubón singled to right, Albies scored.3–0
- 3Albies doubled to center, Harris II scored.2–0
- 1Olson homered to right (404 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML ATL -110 / PIT -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 50.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -100
- ATL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.0 – 5.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −3 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +2 Elo | PIT 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.46th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–20 | Road vs home | 24–2315th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 5th of 301525 | Elo rating | 150015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–39 | 45–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–30 | 20–29 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders | 43–42–6 | 53–37–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 13–11 PIT in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.