Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Jiménez homered to left center (407 feet).3–2
- 6Hernández homered to left (380 feet).3–1
- 5Bazzana hit sacrifice fly to left, Hedges scored, Kwan to second.3–0
- 4DeLauter homered to right center (430 feet), Rocchio scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 53%
- ML CLE +104 / MIA -126
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 52.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.4 – 3.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −1 | CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +16 Elo | MIA 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.38th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 3024–24 | Road vs home | 31–173rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301507 | Elo rating | 150811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–47 | 49–45 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–31 | 22–22 |
| Underdog | 33–16 | 27–23 |
| Overs–unders | 45–49 | 51–40–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–4 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.