Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cole YoungBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Marsee singled to right, Edwards scored, Ruiz to second.5–6
- 8Hernández homered to left (422 feet).5–5
- 8Naylor scored on Faucher wild pitch, Young to second on wild pitch by Faucher, Raley to third on wild pitch by Faucher.5–4
- 8Naylor scored on Faucher wild pitch, Young to second on wild pitch by Faucher, Raley to third on wild pitch by Faucher.5–4
- 8Naylor singled to right, Arozarena scored on error, Naylor safe at second on interference by second baseman Edwards, Raleigh safe at third on error.4–4
- 8Raleigh doubled to right, Crawford scored, Arozarena to third.3–4
- 5Young homered to right (354 feet).2–4
- 5Raley hit sacrifice fly to center, Raleigh scored.1–4
- 4Stowers hit sacrifice fly to right, Hicks scored.0–4
- 3Marsee singled to right, Conine scored, Caissie to third.0–3
- 2Sanoja scored on Woo wild pitch, Hicks to second on wild pitch by Woo.0–2
- 2Sanoja scored on Woo wild pitch, Hicks to second on wild pitch by Woo.0–2
- 2Caissie homered to right center (418 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 53%
- ML SEA +102 / MIA -123
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- MIA: Elo 51.7%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- MIA -111
- SEA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.9 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +8 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +12 Elo | MIA 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 20th of 3020–24 | Road vs home | 28–174th of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 7th of 301520 | Elo rating | 150311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–51 | 47–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 29–42 | 22–21 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 25–23 |
| Overs–unders | 42–45–4 | 49–39–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–4 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.