Miami Marlins at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caissie homered to left (390 feet), Ruiz scored.12–5
- 8Stowers homered to right center (388 feet), Hicks scored.10–5
- 6Stowers homered to right (368 feet).8–5
- 4McNeil doubled to center, Bolte scored, Kuroda-Grauer scored and Cortes scored.7–5
- 3Kurtz homered to center (457 feet), Williams scored.7–2
- 2Edwards hit sacrifice fly to center, Hicks scored.7–0
- 1Marsee homered to right (381 feet).6–0
- 1Hernández homered to center (414 feet), Lopez scored and Edwards scored.5–0
- 1Stowers scored on a passed ball by Langeliers, Edwards to second on passed ball by Langeliers, Lopez to third on passed ball by Langeliers.2–0
- 1Stowers scored on a passed ball by Langeliers, Edwards to second on passed ball by Langeliers, Lopez to third on passed ball by Langeliers.2–0
- 1Edwards walked, Hicks scored, Lopez to second, Stowers to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 56%
- ML MIA +119 / ATH -143
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- ATH: Elo 48.5%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- ATH -129
- MIA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 5.2 – 5.8 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +1 | MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATH: Jack Perkins: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +10 Elo | MIA 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.329th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 21st of 3018–25 | Road vs home | 19–2527th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 15th of 301496 | Elo rating | 147228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–44 | 44–43 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–21 | 10–26 |
| Underdog | 23–23 | 34–17 |
| Overs–unders | 47–38–3 | 42–41–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–4 ATH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
