Los Angeles Dodgers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie BarnesPitching7.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Jonah HeimBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Williams homered to left center (404 feet).1–7
- 5Heim singled to left, Thomas scored.1–6
- 5Thomas doubled to center, Kurtz scored.1–5
- 5Langeliers homered to left center (433 feet).1–4
- 4Bolte singled to center, Kuroda-Grauer scored.1–3
- 4Butler grounded out to shortstop, Heim scored, Kuroda-Grauer to third.1–2
- 3Freeman homered to right center (431 feet).1–1
- 2Heim homered to center (444 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 59%
- ML LAD -158 / ATH +131
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.7%, market 58.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -141
- ATH +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.9 – 5.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +13 | LAD: Jack Dreyer: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +61 Elo | LAD 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.329th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.9 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–16 | Road vs home | 18–2528th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 1st of 301579 | Elo rating | 146828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–43 | 43–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 39–42 | 10–26 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 33–17 |
| Overs–unders | 40–45–1 | 42–40–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 9–2 ATH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
