Los Angeles Dodgers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Colby ThomasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gage JumpPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kurtz walked, Kuroda-Grauer scored on Dreyer wild pitch, Bolte to second.9–4
- 8Freeman singled to left, Rushing scored, Ohtani to second.9–3
- 6Ohtani homered to right (432 feet), Rojas scored and Rushing scored.8–3
- 4Pages homered to left (387 feet), Rojas scored.5–3
- 4Muncy homered to right center (422 feet).3–3
- 2Bolte grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Williams scored, Kuroda-Grauer out at second.2–3
- 2Kuroda-Grauer singled to right, Muncy scored, Williams to third.2–2
- 2Thomas homered to right center (395 feet).2–1
- 2Rushing singled to right, Tucker scored, Rojas to third.2–0
- 2Muncy singled to right, T. Hernández scored, Tucker to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 52%
- ML LAD -120 / ATH -101
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.4%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -109
- ATH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.3 – 5.2 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +29 | LAD: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Gage Jump: team allows 1.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +59 Elo | LAD 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.329th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | −0.628th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 3028–16 | Road vs home | 18–2327th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 1st of 301575 | Elo rating | 147228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–43 | 43–41 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 38–42 | 10–25 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 33–16 |
| Overs–unders | 38–45–1 | 40–40–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 7–2 ATH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
