Los Angeles Dodgers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Tommy EdmanBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Athletics- Colby ThomasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Thomas homered to left center (424 feet), Meneses scored.9–3
- 7Rushing singled to right, Edman scored.9–1
- 7Rojas hit sacrifice fly to center, T. Hernández scored.8–1
- 7Edman singled to left, Betts scored, T. Hernández to second.7–1
- 6Rojas homered to left center (410 feet).6–1
- 3Edman homered to center (428 feet), Freeman scored and Tucker scored.5–1
- 1Heim singled to right, Langeliers scored.2–1
- 1T. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to right, Freeman scored.2–0
- 1Betts singled to left, Pages scored, Freeman to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML LAD -186 / ATH +153
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 68.5%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -165
- ATH +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 6.0 – 5.0 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −43 | LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 2.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +135 Elo | LAD 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.329th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | −0.728th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 1st of 3029–16 | Road vs home | 18–2427th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 1st of 301578 | Elo rating | 147028th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–43 | 43–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 38–42 | 10–26 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 33–16 |
| Overs–unders | 39–45–1 | 41–40–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 8–2 ATH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
