Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Griffin ConineBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean SullivanPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moniak grounded out to second, Julien scored, McCarthy to third.10–7
- 7Goodman homered to left center (442 feet).10–6
- 7Mack reached on infield single to third, Sanoja scored.10–5
- 7Sanoja tripled to right, Caissie scored, Stowers scored and Conine scored.9–5
- 5Conine homered to right (433 feet), Edwards scored and Stowers scored.6–5
- 5Lopez homered to right center (394 feet).3–5
- 3Karros doubled to left, Johnston scored and Carrigg scored.2–5
- 2McCarthy doubled to left, Carrigg scored and Karros scored, Julien to third.2–3
- 2Tovar hit sacrifice fly to left, Rumfield scored.2–1
- 2Jiménez doubled to center, Stowers scored and Hernández scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 58%
- ML MIA -154 / COL +128
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 59.8%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -138
- COL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 6.4 – 5.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +2 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Sean Sullivan: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +69 Elo | MIA 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.130th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 21st of 3016–23 | Road vs home | 18–2225th of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 14th of 301499 | Elo rating | 141130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–42 | 45–39 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–19 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 23–23 | 44–36 |
| Overs–unders | 44–37–3 | 39–42–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 13–10 COL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.