Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting3-5
- Ryan GustoPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Jake McCarthyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sullivan singled to right, Johnston scored, Karros to second.4–14
- 8Carrigg hit sacrifice fly to left, Rumfield scored.4–13
- 6Carrigg hit sacrifice fly to right, Castro scored.4–12
- 6Johnston singled to right, Moniak scored and Rumfield scored, Castro to third.4–11
- 6Rumfield singled to center, McCarthy scored, Moniak to third.4–9
- 6Moniak singled to right, Julien scored, McCarthy to third.4–8
- 6McCarthy singled to left, Carrigg scored and Sullivan scored, Julien to second.4–7
- 4McCarthy homered to right (429 feet), Julien scored.4–5
- 4Hicks grounded out to first, Marsee scored, Mack to second, Sanoja to third.4–3
- 3Castro singled to center, McCarthy scored and Moniak scored.3–3
- 3Edwards hit sacrifice fly to center, Lopez scored.3–1
- 1Moniak homered to right center (407 feet).2–1
- 1Caissie hit sacrifice fly to left, Lopez scored.2–0
- 1Edwards grounded into fielder's choice to second, Hicks scored, Stowers out at second, Lopez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 55%
- ML MIA -136 / COL +113
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 59.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -123
- COL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 6.5 – 6.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +2 | MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +67 Elo | MIA 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.130th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 21st of 3018–24 | Road vs home | 19–2425th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15082nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Elo rating | 141030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–43 | 46–41 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–20 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 23–23 | 45–38 |
| Overs–unders | 46–38–3 | 41–43–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 15–11 COL in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 26.