Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Joe MackBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Karros homered to center (440 feet).3–6
- 7Mack homered to center (424 feet).3–5
- 5Goodman homered to left center (403 feet), Moniak scored.2–5
- 5Moniak tripled to right, Karros scored and Tovar scored.2–3
- 4Sanoja tripled to center, Hicks scored and Hernández scored.2–1
- 1Moniak homered to center (434 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 56%
- ML MIA -144 / COL +119
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 64.8%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- MIA -129
- COL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 5.8 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −15 | MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +106 Elo | MIA 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.230th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 21st of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 18–2427th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15092nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301503 | Elo rating | 140730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–42 | 45–41 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–19 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 23–23 | 44–38 |
| Overs–unders | 46–37–3 | 41–42–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 15–10 COL in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 25.