Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tovar doubled to left, Karros scored.14–3
- 9Stowers doubled to center, Jiménez scored.14–2
- 8Caissie homered to right center (453 feet), Conine scored and Edwards scored.13–2
- 7McCarthy grounded out to first, Julien scored, Karros to third. Miami Marlins challenged: call on the field was overturned.10–2
- 7Mack homered to right (450 feet), Sanoja scored.10–1
- 6Edwards singled to left, Stowers scored, Conine to third.8–1
- 6Conine singled to right, Hicks scored, Stowers to third.7–1
- 6Stowers singled to right, Jiménez scored, Hicks to second.6–1
- 3Sanoja homered to left center (419 feet), Edwards scored and Caissie scored.5–1
- 2Jiménez singled to center, Sanoja scored.2–1
- 1Moniak homered to center (424 feet).1–1
- 1Conine doubled to right, Stowers scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 56%
- ML MIA -141 / COL +117
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 64.1%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- MIA -127
- COL +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 5.8 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −25 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 1.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +101 Elo | MIA 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.130th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 3017–23 | Road vs home | 18–2327th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Elo rating | 140930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–42 | 45–40 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–19 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 23–23 | 44–37 |
| Overs–unders | 45–37–3 | 40–42–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 14–10 COL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 24.