Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-3, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-3
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Giménez scored.2–0
- 3Giménez doubled to center, Keys scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML TOR -136 / SEA +113
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -123
- SEA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.7 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −8 | TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +7 Elo | SEA 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 20th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 25–199th of 30 |
| 8th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149129th of 30 |
| 11th of 301508 | Elo rating | 15168th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–45 | 38–50 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 27–42 |
| Underdog | 23–14 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 43–40–4 | 41–43–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 15–10 SEA in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 25.
- Oct 20SEA 3 @ TOR 4PlayoffsPicked TOR 55%Hit
- Oct 19SEA 2 @ TOR 6PlayoffsPicked TOR 53%Hit
- Oct 17TOR 2 @ SEA 6PlayoffsPicked TOR 52%Miss
- Oct 16TOR 8 @ SEA 2PlayoffsPicked SEA 55%Miss
- Oct 15TOR 13 @ SEA 4PlayoffsPicked SEA 55%Miss
- Oct 13SEA 10 @ TOR 3PlayoffsPicked TOR 53%Miss
- Oct 12SEA 3 @ TOR 1PlayoffsPicked TOR 60%Miss
- May 11TOR 9 @ SEA 1Picked SEA 62%Miss