Miami Marlins at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Athletics- Jonah HeimBatting2-4, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Gage JumpPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Heim singled to center, Butler scored and Muncy scored.9–8
- 9Gelof scored on a passed ball by Mack, Butler to third on passed ball by Mack.9–6
- 9Gelof scored on a passed ball by Mack, Butler to third on passed ball by Mack.9–6
- 9Hicks grounded out to pitcher, Lopez scored, Hernández to third.9–5
- 8Heim homered to right (371 feet), Kuroda-Grauer scored, Cortes scored and Muncy scored.8–5
- 8Cortes doubled to right, Butler scored, Kuroda-Grauer to third.8–1
- 6Hernández homered to center (422 feet).8–0
- 6Lopez homered to center (420 feet).7–0
- 3Lopez hit sacrifice fly to left, Marsee scored, Navarreto to third.6–0
- 3Jiménez homered to left center (405 feet), Ruiz scored.5–0
- 2Hicks hit sacrifice fly to center, Navarreto scored.3–0
- 2Lopez hit a ground rule double, Marsee scored, Navarreto to third.2–0
- 1Hernández homered to center (437 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 52%
- ML MIA -102 / ATH -118
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- ATH: Elo 49.6%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- ATH -107
- MIA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.9 – 5.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +18 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Gage Jump: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +2 Elo | MIA 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 21st of 3020–25 | Road vs home | 19–2728th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Elo rating | 146628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–44 | 44–45 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–21 | 10–27 |
| Underdog | 24–23 | 34–18 |
| Overs–unders | 48–39–3 | 43–42–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 7–4 ATH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
