Miami Marlins at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Athletics- Carlos CortesBatting2-4
- Aaron CivalePitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cortes scored on error, Bolte safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Lopez, Bolte safe at second on error.7–2
- 9Edwards singled to left, Stowers scored, Lopez to second.7–1
- 7McNeil hit sacrifice fly to center, Bolte scored.6–1
- 7Stowers homered to left center (377 feet), Hicks scored.6–0
- 5Lopez doubled to left, Sanoja scored.4–0
- 3Lopez homered to left (375 feet), Hicks scored.3–0
- 3Mack homered to right (397 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 56%
- ML MIA -143 / ATH +119
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- MIA: Elo 51.6%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -129
- ATH +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 6.0 – 5.5 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −3 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +11 Elo | MIA 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 21st of 3019–25 | Road vs home | 19–2627th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 14th of 301499 | Elo rating | 146928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–44 | 44–44 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–21 | 10–27 |
| Underdog | 24–23 | 34–17 |
| Overs–unders | 48–38–3 | 43–41–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–4 ATH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
