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Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, Mariners.TV, Sportsnet, TVA

Away

Blue Jays

42-47

0–11

at

Home

Mariners

46-44

TOR 40%SEA 60%

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T-Mobile Park · MLB.TV, Mariners.TV, Sportsnet, TVA

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.

SEA75%50%75%TORStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Blue Jays
  • Yohendrick PinangoBatting1-3
  • Shane BieberPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Mariners
  • Randy ArozarenaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
  • Logan GilbertPitching7.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K

Scoring summary

  • 6Raleigh homered to right (384 feet), Arozarena scored and Canzone scored.0–11
  • 6Canzone singled to right, Emerson scored, Arozarena to second.0–8
  • 5Canzone homered to right center (401 feet), Arozarena scored.0–7
  • 2Arozarena homered to left (412 feet), Robles scored, Emerson scored and Crawford scored.0–5
  • 2Robles singled to left, Young scored.0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Mariners 60%

LeanHit
TOR 40%SEA 60%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.

Market
SEA 60%
ML TOR +140 / SEA -169
Pre-line forecast
SEA 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
SEA 55%
Ratings vs. market
−5.0 pts
SEA: Elo 55.1%, market 60.1%
Fair odds
SEA -151
TOR +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TOR 3.3 – 4.2 SEA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTORSEAWhy
Team rating15101514Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers0+13TOR: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsSEA +36 EloSEA 55.1%
Market-implied ratingsSEA 57.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastSEA 57.5%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastSEA 60.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners compared, with each team's league rank
TORStatSEA
25th of 304.0Runs scored4.026th of 30
12th of 304.4Runs allowed3.94th of 30
19th of 30−0.3Margin+0.112th of 30
23rd of 303–7Last 105–511th of 30
19th of 3018–21Road vs home25–209th of 30
9th of 301502Opponent Elo149129th of 30
10th of 301510Elo rating15148th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Blue JaysMariners
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTORSEA
Run line43–4538–51
Last 102–84–6
Favorite20–3127–42
Underdog23–1411–9
Overs–unders43–41–441–44–4
Overs–unders, last 105–54–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TOR 16–10 SEA in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 26.