Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting1-4
- Trey YesavagePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Mitch GarverBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Naylor reached on infield single to third, Arozarena scored, Raleigh to second.0–4
- 4Garver homered to left (377 feet), Young scored.0–3
- 3Raleigh hit sacrifice fly to right, Robles scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 50%
- ML TOR -110 / SEA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -100
- TOR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.8 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −8 | TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +20 Elo | SEA 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 21st of 3018–22 | Road vs home | 26–209th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149129th of 30 |
| 11th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15178th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–46 | 39–51 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–31 | 28–42 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 44–41–4 | 42–44–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 16–11 SEA in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 27.
- Jul 4TOR 0 @ SEA 11Picked SEA 60%Hit
- Jul 3TOR 2 @ SEA 0Picked TOR 55%Hit
- Oct 20SEA 3 @ TOR 4PlayoffsPicked TOR 55%Hit
- Oct 19SEA 2 @ TOR 6PlayoffsPicked TOR 53%Hit
- Oct 17TOR 2 @ SEA 6PlayoffsPicked TOR 52%Miss
- Oct 16TOR 8 @ SEA 2PlayoffsPicked SEA 55%Miss
- Oct 15TOR 13 @ SEA 4PlayoffsPicked SEA 55%Miss
- Oct 13SEA 10 @ TOR 3PlayoffsPicked TOR 53%Miss