Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-4
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 3Edwards tripled to right, Lopez scored.0–2
- 2Stowers homered to center (416 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML SEA -126 / MIA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 49.2%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +2 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +6 Elo | MIA 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 21st of 3020–25 | Road vs home | 29–174th of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 7th of 301519 | Elo rating | 150414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–51 | 47–45 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 29–42 | 22–22 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 25–23 |
| Overs–unders | 43–45–4 | 50–39–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–5 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.