Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Griffin ConineBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Canzone homered to center (421 feet), Arozarena scored.4–8
- 7Jiménez grounded out to second, Ruiz scored, Marsee to second.2–8
- 7Marsee singled to right, Conine scored, Ruiz to third.2–7
- 5Arozarena homered to center (414 feet).2–6
- 4Stowers singled to right, Lopez scored.1–6
- 4Lopez tripled to left, Jiménez scored and Hicks scored.1–5
- 4Hicks grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Marsee scored, Jiménez safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Emerson. Miami Marlins challenged: call overturned.1–3
- 2Hicks doubled to right, Marsee scored.1–2
- 2Conine homered to right (373 feet).1–1
- 2Naylor scored.1–0
- 2Naylor scored.1–0
- 2Naylor scored.0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML SEA -131 / MIA +109
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 51.1%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 3.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −5 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +8 Elo | SEA 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.38th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3020–26 | Road vs home | 30–173rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 8th of 301517 | Elo rating | 150513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–52 | 48–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 29–43 | 22–22 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 26–23 |
| Overs–unders | 43–46–4 | 50–40–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–6 MIA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.