Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Henry DavisBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mitchell doubled to left, Bauers scored, Sánchez to third.5–14
- 8Turang homered to right (387 feet), Chourio scored.4–14
- 4Mangum tripled to center, Davis scored.2–14
- 4Triolo singled to left, O'Hearn scored and Gonzales scored.2–13
- 4Gonzales doubled to right, Reynolds scored and Valdez scored, O'Hearn to third.2–11
- 4O'Hearn singled to center, Lowe scored, Valdez to second, Reynolds to third.2–9
- 4Valdez walked, Mangum scored, Reynolds to second, Lowe to third.2–8
- 4Reynolds hit by pitch, Davis scored, Lowe to second, Mangum to third.2–7
- 4Davis singled to left, Triolo scored.2–6
- 4Ozuna homered to left (338 feet).2–5
- 4Sánchez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Chourio scored, Bauers out at second.2–4
- 4Chourio doubled to right, Yelich scored.1–4
- 2Davis homered to left (364 feet), Ozuna scored.0–4
- 2Ozuna singled to center, O'Hearn scored.0–2
- 2O'Hearn doubled to right, Valdez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 54%
- ML MIL +108 / PIT -130
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 42.1%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -118
- MIL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 4.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −5 | MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +55 Elo | MIL 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3030–18 | Road vs home | 26–2414th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301568 | Elo rating | 150016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–43 | 46–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–36 | 20–31 |
| Underdog | 21–7 | 26–19 |
| Overs–unders | 42–50–3 | 55–38–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 26–18 PIT in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 44.