Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jacob GonzalezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Guardians- Travis BazzanaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8O'Hearn hit sacrifice fly to right, Reynolds scored.7–1
- 8Lowe scored on a passed ball by Bailey, Reynolds to third on passed ball by Bailey.6–1
- 8Lowe scored on a passed ball by Bailey, Reynolds to third on passed ball by Bailey.6–1
- 6Gonzales homered to right center (387 feet).5–1
- 6Valdez homered to right center (373 feet), Reynolds scored.4–1
- 3Bazzana tripled to right, Kwan scored.2–1
- 2Gonzalez homered to right (428 feet), Callihan scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML PIT +109 / CLE -131
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.2%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.6 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +29 Elo | CLE 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3023–23 | Road vs home | 24–2216th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15026th of 30 |
| 13th of 301504 | Elo rating | 15129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–50 | 50–47 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–31 | 14–31 |
| Underdog | 26–19 | 36–16 |
| Overs–unders | 56–38–3 | 45–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–7 CLE in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.