Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting3-4
- Tanner BibeePitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bailey doubled to left, Manzardo scored and Watson scored.4–1
- 7Hicks singled to left, Mack scored.2–1
- 4Kwan doubled to left, Arias scored and Halpin scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 59%
- ML CLE +134 / MIA -162
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- MIA: Elo 53.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -145
- CLE +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.3 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −3 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +25 Elo | MIA 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3025–24 | Road vs home | 31–184th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301508 | Elo rating | 150713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–47 | 49–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–31 | 22–23 |
| Underdog | 34–16 | 27–23 |
| Overs–unders | 45–50 | 51–41–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 6–4 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.