Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Marlins- Griffin ConineBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Calvin FaucherPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Conine homered to right center (442 feet).5–2
- 9DeLauter homered to right (435 feet).5–1
- 7Watson reached on infield single to shortstop, Bazzana scored, Manzardo to second.4–1
- 5Rocchio homered to right (398 feet).3–1
- 3Edwards singled to left, Hernández scored.2–1
- 1Manzardo singled to left, Rocchio scored.2–0
- 1Rocchio singled to right, Bazzana scored, Rocchio to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML CLE -114 / MIA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 48.0%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 3.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +9 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +14 Elo | MIA 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 10th of 3026–24 | Road vs home | 31–194th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301510 | Elo rating | 150513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–47 | 49–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–31 | 22–24 |
| Underdog | 35–16 | 27–23 |
| Overs–unders | 45–51 | 51–42–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–4 MIA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.