Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Petey HalpinBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caratini doubled to right, Bell scored.4–13
- 7DeLauter doubled to right, Halpin scored and Manzardo scored.3–13
- 7Bailey homered to center (408 feet).3–11
- 7Larnach singled to right, Roden scored.3–10
- 6DeLauter singled to center, Kwan scored, Bazzana to second.2–10
- 5Bailey singled to right, Schneemann scored.2–9
- 4Halpin homered to center (396 feet).2–8
- 3Hoskins homered to left (398 feet).2–7
- 2Bazzana homered to right center (385 feet).2–6
- 2Halpin homered to right center (411 feet), Bailey scored.2–5
- 2Roden hit sacrifice fly to center, Lee scored.2–3
- 2Lee tripled to center, Lewis scored.1–3
- 1Hoskins homered to left (401 feet).0–3
- 1Rocchio homered to right (383 feet), Bazzana scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML MIN -131 / CLE +109
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 46.2%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.9 – 3.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −5 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +26 Elo | CLE 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 3023–26 | Road vs home | 25–2417th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15025th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301481 | Elo rating | 150811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–50 | 51–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–23 | 15–33 |
| Underdog | 38–27 | 36–16 |
| Overs–unders | 54–38–8 | 47–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 17–28 CLE in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 45.