Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Esmerlyn ValdezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Valdez homered to left (371 feet), Triolo scored.7–1
- 6Mangum singled to center, Cook scored, Mangum to second.5–1
- 6Cook singled to center, Gonzalez scored.4–1
- 6Gonzalez doubled to right, Gonzales scored.3–1
- 5Cook scored on pickoff error by catcher Bailey.2–1
- 5Cook scored on pickoff error by catcher Bailey.2–1
- 3Kwan reached on bunt single to first, Arias scored on error, Halpin to second, Halpin safe at third on error by catcher Davis.1–1
- 2Cook singled to right, Gonzales scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML PIT -107 / CLE -113
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.6%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -103
- PIT +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.5 – 3.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +9 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +39 Elo | CLE 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 11th of 3024–24 | Road vs home | 25–2316th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15026th of 30 |
| 13th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–51 | 51–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–31 | 15–32 |
| Underdog | 27–20 | 36–16 |
| Overs–unders | 57–39–3 | 46–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–8 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.