Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Max KeplerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kohl DrakePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Vargas singled to left, Moreno scored, Arenado to second, Kepler to third.5–6
- 10Arenado singled to center, Carroll scored, Kepler to second, Moreno to third.5–5
- 10Heim hit sacrifice fly to center, Soderstrom scored.5–4
- 9Wilson homered to left (394 feet), Walton scored.4–4
- 8Langeliers homered to left center (444 feet).2–4
- 7Marte hit sacrifice fly to center, Vargas scored, Barrosa to third.1–4
- 3Williams singled to right, Butler scored.1–3
- 1Kepler homered to right center (392 feet), Marte scored and Moreno scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 55%
- ML ATH +114 / ARI -137
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 60.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -124
- ATH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.5 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | ATH: Jack Perkins: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Kohl Drake (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +72 Elo | ARI 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 15th of 3023–27 | Road vs home | 28–219th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 28th of 301453 | Elo rating | 150414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–53 | 54–46 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 17–27 |
| Underdog | 36–25 | 37–19 |
| Overs–unders | 48–48–4 | 39–53–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 4–6 ARI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.
