St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Blaze JordanBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kepler doubled to right, Barrosa scored.7–8
- 8Arenado homered to left center (384 feet), Locklear scored.7–7
- 7Perdomo hit inside-the-park home run to left field (242 feet), Del Castillo scored.7–5
- 6Locklear walked, Marte scored, Moreno to second, Perdomo to third.7–3
- 6Moreno walked, Waldschmidt scored, Perdomo to second, Marte to third.7–2
- 6Marte singled to center, Del Castillo scored, Waldschmidt to third.7–1
- 5Jordan singled to right, Burleson scored and Fermín scored, Nootbaar to second.7–0
- 3Burleson singled to center, Herrera scored and Walker scored.5–0
- 3Walker doubled to left, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to third.3–0
- 3Wetherholt singled to left, Jordan scored.2–0
- 3Jordan tripled to left, Nootbaar scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML STL +104 / ARI -126
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 55.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +18 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +40 Elo | ARI 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3025–20 | Road vs home | 27–208th of 30 |
| 1st of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Elo rating | 150613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–41 | 54–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–20 | 17–25 |
| Underdog | 45–21 | 37–19 |
| Overs–unders | 39–52–6 | 38–52–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 11–12 ARI in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 23.