Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- James McCannBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8McCann homered to left center (399 feet).9–2
- 8Arenado homered to left (356 feet).8–2
- 7Kepler hit sacrifice fly to right, Perdomo scored, Carroll to third.7–2
- 6Betts singled to left, Pages scored, Freeman to second.6–2
- 6Pages singled to left, Edman scored.6–1
- 6McCann homered to left (375 feet), Tawa scored and Arenado scored.6–0
- 6Tawa doubled to left, Moreno scored.3–0
- 6Kepler hit sacrifice fly to center, Perdomo scored.2–0
- 4Tawa grounded out to third, Moreno scored, Kepler to second. Arizona Diamondbacks challenged: call on the field was upheld.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 73%
- ML ARI +255 / LAD -322
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 66.0%, market 73.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -271
- ARI +271 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.2 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +23 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 1.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +115 Elo | LAD 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 69.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 73.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.61st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3020–27 | Road vs home | 31–172nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148830th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15731st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–43 | 45–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–24 | 41–49 |
| Underdog | 35–19 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 37–50–7 | 43–51–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 23–27 LAD in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 50.