Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Tim TawaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HurtPitching1.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rojas doubled to left, Edman scored.9–3
- 8Tawa singled to right, Barrosa scored.9–2
- 6Perdomo grounded out to first, Barrosa scored, Tawa to third.8–2
- 6Tawa singled to left, Arenado scored, Barrosa to third.7–2
- 5Carroll scored on Henriquez wild pitch.6–2
- 5Carroll scored on Henriquez wild pitch.6–2
- 5Moreno grounded out to third, Perdomo scored, Carroll to second.5–2
- 4Tawa homered to left center (429 feet), Arenado scored.4–2
- 1Pages homered to left center (419 feet).2–2
- 1Ohtani homered to left center (381 feet).2–1
- 1Moreno singled to right, Marte scored on error and Carroll scored on throwing error by right fielder Tucker, Moreno to second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML ARI +168 / LAD -205
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.4%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -180
- ARI +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.9 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | +2 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 1.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Kyle Hurt: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +81 Elo | LAD 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.61st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3019–27 | Road vs home | 31–162nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148830th of 30 |
| 17th of 301495 | Elo rating | 15771st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–43 | 45–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–24 | 41–48 |
| Underdog | 34–19 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 36–50–7 | 42–51–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 22–27 LAD in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 49.