Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Cole CarriggBatting2-4
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8McCarthy hit sacrifice bunt to third, Carrigg scored on error and Freeman scored on throwing error by second baseman Freeland.4–3
- 8Freeman grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Karros scored, Carrigg to second, Carrigg safe at third on fielding error by shortstop Rojas.2–3
- 6Freeland singled to left, Edman scored.1–3
- 6McCarthy grounded out to shortstop, Carrigg scored, Freeman to second.1–2
- 5Pages walked, Freeland scored, Ohtani to second, Rojas to third.0–2
- 1Ohtani homered to center (409 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 73%
- ML COL +257 / LAD -326
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 73.2%, market 73.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -273
- COL +273 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 5.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +5 | COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +175 Elo | LAD 73.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 71.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 71.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 73.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 3.61st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 29th of 3015–30 | Road vs home | 30–152nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 30th of 301418 | Elo rating | 15781st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–42 | 45–47 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 41–46 |
| Underdog | 49–39 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 44–44–4 | 42–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 10–37 LAD in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 37 of 47.