San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Kyle KarrosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Karros homered to left center (457 feet), Rumfield scored and Fulford scored.6–7
- 6Gilbert singled to center, Adames scored, Eldridge to second.6–4
- 5Devers homered to right (463 feet).5–4
- 5Schmitt homered to left (395 feet).4–4
- 4Devers homered to right center (420 feet).3–4
- 3Johnston hit sacrifice fly to left, Goodman scored.2–4
- 2Sullivan doubled to right, Julien scored.2–3
- 2Gilbert homered to right center (410 feet), Adames scored.2–2
- 1Rumfield scored, Johnston to second on pickoff error by pitcher Mahle.0–2
- 1Rumfield scored, Johnston to second on pickoff error by pitcher Mahle.0–2
- 1Goodman grounded out to shortstop, McCarthy scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML SF -129 / COL +107
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.8 pts
- SF: Elo 60.6%, market 53.8%
- Fair odds
- SF -117
- COL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 6.7 – 6.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 13
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −30 | SF: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 1.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +75 Elo | SF 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 53.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.929th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 25th of 3019–29 | Road vs home | 21–2523rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301478 | Elo rating | 141730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–47 | 48–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–20 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 29–27 | 47–39 |
| Overs–unders | 40–41–7 | 43–44–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 32–12 COL in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 44.