San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Jake McCarthyBatting4-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tovar hit sacrifice fly to center, Karros scored.3–15
- 6Devers homered to right (432 feet).3–14
- 5Freeman singled to center, Carrigg scored.2–14
- 5Carrigg tripled to center, Goodman scored and Rumfield scored.2–13
- 5McCarthy homered to right center (427 feet), Julien scored, Karros scored and Tovar scored.2–11
- 4Eldridge singled to right, Lee scored.2–7
- 3McCarthy singled to right, Julien scored, Tovar to third.1–7
- 3Julien grounded into fielder's choice to second, Carrigg scored.1–6
- 3Schmitt singled to right, Arraez scored.1–5
- 2Tovar homered to right center (392 feet), Karros scored.0–5
- 1Freeman grounded into double play, third to first, Goodman scored, Carrigg to second, Rumfield out at third.0–3
- 1Carrigg walked, Moniak scored, Rumfield to second, Goodman to third.0–2
- 1McCarthy homered to right center (440 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 59%
- ML SF -160 / COL +132
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- SF: Elo 58.0%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- SF -143
- COL +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 6.1 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +7 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +56 Elo | SF 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.030th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 24th of 3018–28 | Road vs home | 20–2423rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15073rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301481 | Elo rating | 141430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–46 | 47–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–19 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 29–27 | 46–38 |
| Overs–unders | 39–40–7 | 42–43–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 31–11 COL in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 42.