San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Bryce EldridgeBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Cole CarriggBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean SullivanPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rumfield singled to left, Carrigg scored.6–4
- 3Eldridge homered to right center (458 feet).6–3
- 2Arraez singled to right, Ramos scored, Arraez to second.5–3
- 1Carrigg homered to left (393 feet), Goodman scored and Freeman scored.4–3
- 1Eldridge doubled to left, Adames scored.4–0
- 1Adames doubled to left, Lee scored and Schmitt scored.3–0
- 1Lee grounded into fielder's choice to second, Arraez scored, Devers out at second, Schmitt to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML SF -131 / COL +109
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- SF: Elo 57.0%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -119
- COL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 6.4 – 6.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −5 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Sean Sullivan: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +49 Elo | SF 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.929th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 25th of 3018–29 | Road vs home | 21–2423rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301477 | Elo rating | 141930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–47 | 48–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–20 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 29–27 | 47–38 |
| Overs–unders | 40–40–7 | 43–43–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 31–12 COL in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 43.