San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-4
- Griffin CanningPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Freeman singled to center, Edman scored.0–3
- 6Freeman homered to right center (388 feet).0–2
- 3Pages singled to left, Rushing scored, Freeland to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 71%
- ML SD +228 / LAD -285
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 65.9%, market 70.8%
- Fair odds
- LAD -243
- SD +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.3 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1579 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +19 | SD: Wandy Peralta: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.96 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +114 Elo | LAD 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 71.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 71.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 70.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 28–142nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149130th of 30 |
| 13th of 301504 | Elo rating | 15791st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–45 | 44–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–25 | 40–44 |
| Underdog | 28–20 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 38–47–2 | 41–47–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 20–32 LAD in their last 52 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 52.