San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Dodgers- Dalton RushingBatting4-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Andujar singled to center, Taylor scored, Machado to second.7–12
- 8Rushing singled to right, Tucker scored, T. Hernández to third.6–12
- 6Rushing hit sacrifice fly to center, Tucker scored.6–11
- 5Edman scored on Matsui wild pitch.6–10
- 5Edman scored on Matsui wild pitch.6–10
- 5Edman doubled to right, Rushing scored.6–9
- 4Muncy singled to center, Betts scored.6–8
- 4Betts doubled to center, Pages scored.6–7
- 4Pages doubled to left, Edman scored and Rushing scored.6–6
- 3Tucker singled to right, Muncy scored.6–4
- 3Muncy doubled to center, Betts scored.6–3
- 2Rushing homered to center (394 feet), Tucker scored.6–2
- 2Cronenworth homered to right center (383 feet), Bogaerts scored and Tatis Jr. scored.6–0
- 2Merrill homered to left center (383 feet).3–0
- 1Machado homered to center (408 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML SD +178 / LAD -219
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.6%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -191
- SD +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 5.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −12 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +75 Elo | LAD 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 26–143rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149130th of 30 |
| 12th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15761st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–44 | 43–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–25 | 39–43 |
| Underdog | 27–19 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 37–46–2 | 40–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 20–30 LAD in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 50.