San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7T. Hernández homered to center (419 feet), Betts scored, Muncy scored and Tucker scored.3–4
- 6Bogaerts doubled to right, Merrill scored.3–0
- 4Merrill homered to center (423 feet).2–0
- 1Sheets singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Cronenworth to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 70%
- ML SD +220 / LAD -274
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 63.9%, market 70.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -234
- SD +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.1 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +13 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +99 Elo | LAD 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 70.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 27–143rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 13th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15781st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–45 | 44–44 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–25 | 40–43 |
| Underdog | 27–20 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 38–46–2 | 41–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 20–31 LAD in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 51.