San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ohtani singled to center, Tucker scored, Freeland to third.5–2
- 7Freeland singled to center, T. Hernández scored, Tucker to second.5–1
- 7Machado homered to center (407 feet), Campusano scored and Tatis Jr. scored.5–0
- 7Tatis Jr. reached on infield single to third, Song scored, Campusano to second. Los Angeles Dodgers challenged: call on the field was upheld.2–0
- 4Merrill singled to right, Machado scored, Sheets to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML SD +184 / LAD -226
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.8%, market 66.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -197
- SD +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 5.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −16 | SD: JP Sears: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +91 Elo | LAD 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 67.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 66.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 20th of 3019–23 | Road vs home | 29–142nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 12th of 301503 | Elo rating | 15801st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–46 | 45–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–25 | 41–44 |
| Underdog | 28–21 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 38–48–2 | 41–48–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 20–33 LAD in their last 53 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 53.