Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Rushing singled to center, T. Hernández scored, Muncy to third.7–8
- 10Pages scored on error, Betts safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Julien.7–7
- 10McCarthy grounded out to first, Carrigg scored.7–6
- 9Carrigg doubled to center, Castro scored and Sullivan scored, Goodman thrown out at home. Los Angeles Dodgers challenged: call on the field was overturned.6–6
- 9Karros doubled to center, Tovar scored, Castro to third.4–6
- 6McCarthy singled to center, Carrigg scored.3–6
- 5Tovar homered to left (393 feet).2–6
- 4Ohtani singled to center, Muncy scored and Rushing scored.1–6
- 4Rojas hit sacrifice fly to center, T. Hernández scored.1–4
- 4Muncy singled to right, Tucker scored, T. Hernández to third.1–3
- 3Ohtani homered to left center (379 feet), Rushing scored.1–2
- 2Tovar hit sacrifice fly to left, Carrigg scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 68%
- ML COL +203 / LAD -251
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 74.5%, market 68.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -217
- COL +217 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.9 – 5.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +4 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +186 Elo | LAD 74.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 69.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 68.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 29th of 3015–29 | Road vs home | 29–153rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 30th of 301419 | Elo rating | 15771st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–42 | 45–46 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 41–45 |
| Underdog | 48–39 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 43–44–4 | 41–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 10–36 LAD in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 36 of 46.