Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-4
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- German MarquezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 1Cronenworth homered to right (384 feet), Merrill scored and Sheets scored.1–4
- 1Merrill singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.1–1
- 1Kepler walked, Perdomo scored, Moreno to second, Carroll to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 52%
- ML ARI -102 / SD -119
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- SD: Elo 53.2%, market 51.8%
- Fair odds
- SD -108
- ARI +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −18 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: German Marquez: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +22 Elo | SD 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 51.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3018–25 | Road vs home | 23–2216th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Elo rating | 150215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–41 | 43–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–24 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 33–17 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders | 35–48–7 | 38–50–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 20–22 SD in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 42.