Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Max KeplerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting2-4
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Arenado homered to left (361 feet).8–0
- 4Perdomo homered to right (377 feet).7–0
- 3Kepler homered to right (417 feet), Moreno scored and Gurriel Jr. scored.6–0
- 3Gurriel Jr. singled to right, Carroll scored, Moreno to second.3–0
- 1Kepler singled to left, Perdomo scored on error, Kepler safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Taylor, Moreno safe at third on error.2–0
- 1Marte scored on throwing error by pitcher Buehler, Perdomo stole second.1–0
- 1Marte scored on throwing error by pitcher Buehler, Perdomo stole second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML ARI +108 / SD -131
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- SD: Elo 53.3%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -118
- ARI +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.1 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −14 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +23 Elo | SD 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3017–25 | Road vs home | 23–2112th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Elo rating | 150611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–41 | 43–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–24 | 14–25 |
| Underdog | 32–17 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders | 35–47–7 | 38–49–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 19–22 SD in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 41.