Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Kyle KarrosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gabriel HughesPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Kyle TuckerBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Betts singled to center, Edman scored, Freeman to second.3–4
- 3Moniak hit sacrifice fly to center, Sullivan scored.3–3
- 2Julien homered to right center (423 feet).2–3
- 2Karros homered to left center (417 feet).1–3
- 1Tucker singled to left, Betts scored and Freeman scored, Muncy to second.0–3
- 1Edman scored on Hughes wild pitch, Betts to second on wild pitch by Hughes, Freeman to third on wild pitch by Hughes.0–1
- 1Edman scored on Hughes wild pitch, Betts to second on wild pitch by Hughes, Freeman to third on wild pitch by Hughes.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 70%
- ML COL +217 / LAD -271
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 69.1%, market 69.8%
- Fair odds
- LAD -232
- COL +232 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.1 – 5.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −16 | COL: Gabriel Hughes (no track record yet) · LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +140 Elo | LAD 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 70.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 69.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.61st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3016–30 | Road vs home | 30–162nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 30th of 301420 | Elo rating | 15761st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–42 | 45–48 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 41–47 |
| Underdog | 50–39 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 44–45–4 | 42–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 11–37 LAD in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 37 of 48.