Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Tommy TroyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose CabreraPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kepler doubled to right, Carroll scored.4–10
- 7Bowen singled to left, Andujar scored.3–10
- 7Andujar doubled to left, Cronenworth scored.3–9
- 7Troy homered to left center (405 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.3–8
- 6Merrill singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.1–8
- 6Tatis Jr. singled to left, Song scored, Tatis Jr. to second.1–7
- 6Song singled to right, Andujar scored.1–6
- 6Campusano homered to left center (406 feet).1–5
- 5Bogaerts singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored and Merrill scored.1–4
- 4Andujar doubled to left, Campusano scored.1–2
- 3Merrill grounded out to pitcher, Song scored, Tatis Jr. to third.1–1
- 1Moreno doubled to right, Vargas scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 57%
- ML ARI +123 / SD -148
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- SD: Elo 54.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -133
- ARI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.9 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +8 | ARI: Jose Cabrera: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +34 Elo | SD 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3018–26 | Road vs home | 24–2213th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 17th of 301496 | Elo rating | 150414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–42 | 44–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–24 | 15–26 |
| Underdog | 33–18 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders | 35–49–7 | 38–51–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 20–23 SD in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 43.