Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Arenado homered to left center (387 feet).3–1
- 5Perdomo singled to center, Troy scored.2–1
- 4Kepler scored on Canning wild pitch, Gurriel Jr. to second on wild pitch by Canning.1–1
- 4Kepler scored on Canning wild pitch, Gurriel Jr. to second on wild pitch by Canning.1–1
- 2Machado homered to right (368 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML ARI +108 / SD -131
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- SD: Elo 54.1%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -118
- ARI +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −2 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +28 Elo | SD 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 24th of 3018–27 | Road vs home | 25–2213th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Elo rating | 150713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–43 | 45–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–24 | 16–26 |
| Underdog | 33–19 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders | 36–49–7 | 39–51–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 20–24 SD in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 44.