Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Brewer HicklenBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- JR RitchiePitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Jose FerminBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Albies scored on error, Dubón safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Winn, Harris II safe at third on error.4–3
- 6Fermín singled to center, Nootbaar scored and Walker scored, Winn to third.3–3
- 6Hicklen doubled to center, Jarvis scored.3–1
- 4Baldwin singled to right, Riley scored, Hicklen to second. Atlanta Braves challenged: call on the field was overturned.2–1
- 2Smith scored on May wild pitch, Baldwin to second on wild pitch by May, Riley to third on wild pitch by May.1–1
- 2Smith scored on May wild pitch, Baldwin to second on wild pitch by May, Riley to third on wild pitch by May.1–1
- 1Burleson doubled to left, Walker scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML ATL +113 / STL -136
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- STL: Elo 50.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -123
- ATL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.5 – 4.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +1 | ATL: Danny Young (no track record yet) · STL: Dustin May: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +2 Elo | STL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 8th of 3027–22 | Road vs home | 26–2518th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15082nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301525 | Elo rating | 149718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–41 | 55–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 33–31 | 11–19 |
| Underdog | 20–10 | 44–20 |
| Overs–unders | 44–44–6 | 39–50–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 11–12 STL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.