Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Jimmy CrooksBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crooks homered to center (405 feet).1–2
- 6Walker singled to right, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to second.1–1
- 5Riley singled to center, Yastrzemski scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 59%
- ML ATL -163 / STL +135
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 53.5%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -146
- STL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 3.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +7 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +24 Elo | ATL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.0 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 4th of 3027–20 | Road vs home | 24–2518th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 5th of 301528 | Elo rating | 149418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–39 | 53–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–30 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 20–9 | 43–20 |
| Overs–unders | 44–42–6 | 39–48–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 11–10 STL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.